The probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis code PASCAL-SP is improved by introducing crack-growth evaluation methods based on J-integrals, including calculation functions of J-integral values for semi-elliptical surfaces and through-wall cracks in pipes. Using the improved PASCAL-SP, sensitivity analyses that varied parameters such as earthquake magnitude were carried out on the basis of probabilistic evaluation. Results obtained from sensitivity analyses are also presented, e.g., the effect of earthquake magnitude on failure probability. The improved PASCAL-SP makes evaluation of the failure probability of piping under large seismic loading possible.

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