To optimize both production and maintenance, from both a technical and an economical point of view, it would be advisable to predict the future health condition of a system and of its components, starting from field measurements taken in the past. For this purpose, this paper presents a methodology, based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, which aims to determine the future operating state of a gas turbine. The methodology allows the system future availability to be estimated, to support a prognostic process based on past historical data trends. One of the most innovative features is that the prognostic methodology can be applied to both global and local performance parameters, as, for instance, machine specific fuel consumption or local temperatures. First, the theoretical background for developing the prognostic methodology is outlined. Then, the procedure for implementing the methodology is developed and a simulation model is set up. Finally, different degradation-over-time scenarios for a gas turbine are simulated and a sensitivity analysis on methodology response is carried out, to assess the capability and the reliability of the prognostic methodology. The methodology proves robust and reliable, with a prediction error lower than 2%, for the availability associated with the next future data trend.
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e-mail: mauro.venturini@unife.it
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February 2012
Research Papers
Development of a Statistical Methodology for Gas Turbine Prognostics
Nicola Puggina,
Nicola Puggina
Dipartimento di Ingegneria,
Università degli Studi di Ferrara
, Via G. Saragat, 1, 44122 Ferrara, Italy
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Mauro Venturini
Mauro Venturini
Dipartimento di Ingegneria,
e-mail: mauro.venturini@unife.it
Università degli Studi di Ferrara
, Via G. Saragat, 1, 44122 Ferrara, Italy
Search for other works by this author on:
Nicola Puggina
Dipartimento di Ingegneria,
Università degli Studi di Ferrara
, Via G. Saragat, 1, 44122 Ferrara, Italy
Mauro Venturini
Dipartimento di Ingegneria,
Università degli Studi di Ferrara
, Via G. Saragat, 1, 44122 Ferrara, Italy
e-mail: mauro.venturini@unife.it
J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. Feb 2012, 134(2): 022401 (9 pages)
Published Online: December 16, 2011
Article history
Revised:
April 27, 2011
Received:
April 27, 2011
Online:
December 16, 2011
Published:
December 16, 2011
Citation
Puggina, N., and Venturini, M. (December 16, 2011). "Development of a Statistical Methodology for Gas Turbine Prognostics." ASME. J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. February 2012; 134(2): 022401. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4004185
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