Ferritic steels, which are typically used for critical reactor components, including reactor pressure vessels (RPV), exhibit a temperature-dependent probability of cleavage fracture, termed ductile-to-brittle transition. The fracture process has been linked to the interaction between matrix plasticity and second-phase particles. Under high-enough loads, a competition exists between cleavage and ductile fracture, which results from particles rupturing to form microcracks or particles decohering to form microvoids, respectively. Currently, there is no sufficiently adequate model that can predict accurately the reduced probability of cleavage with increasing temperature and the associated increase of plastic deformation. In this work, failure probability has been estimated using a local approach to cleavage fracture incorporating the statistics of microcracks. It is shown that changes in the deformation material properties are not enough to capture the significant changes in fracture toughness. Instead, a correction to the fraction of particles converted to eligible for cleavage microcracks, with an exponential dependence on the plastic strains, is proposed. The proposed method is compared with previous corrections that incorporate the plastic strains, and its advantages are demonstrated. The method is developed for the RPV steel 22NiMoCr37 and using experimental data for a standard compact tension C(T) specimen. The proposed approach offers more accurate calculations of cleavage fracture toughness in the ductile-to-brittle transition regime using only a decoupled model, which is attractive for engineering practice.